Public Beta / Pokemon Card Market Intelligence
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CardTrends connects Pokemon card prices, sold-market evidence, industry news, independent Research Signals, and collector perspectives around the cards you follow.
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One market, connected
Market Data
Track card-grade prices, verified sold comps, population, scarcity, liquidity, and the quality of the underlying evidence.
News
Scan a focused Pokemon TCG news tape from specialist publishers alongside CardTrends's own market-activity headlines.
Research
Use source-aware Fair Value Estimates and Research Signals that show their evidence, confidence, and data limitations.
Community
Build a watchlist or portfolio and publish collector perspectives connected to canonical card-grade pages.
Why CardTrends
A price is more useful when you can see the evidence, the news, and what other collectors are saying. CardTrends brings those signals together without turning them into financial advice.
Explore CardTrends
| Market Home | Follow market movers, active cards, your watchlist, and the latest Pokemon TCG headlines. |
|---|---|
| Research Signals | Compare market price with CardTrends's Fair Value Estimate and inspect the evidence behind each result. |
| Community | Read and publish card-linked perspectives without separating the conversation from the underlying data. |
| Portfolio | Connect your holdings to current market values, research coverage, and watchlist activity. |
Current coverage
CardTrends Public Beta
Start with the market. Save the cards that matter to you.
CardTrends is independent research, not financial advice. It does not buy, sell, appraise, or broker cards. Signals describe relative value in a volatile collectibles market and can be wrong. PSA population is certified supply, not float. Pokemon, PSA, and other third-party marks belong to their respective owners; CardTrends is not affiliated with or endorsed by them.
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Market Coverage
Raw Pricing
Source-aware USD quotes. Each value names its selected provider and availability state; PSA summaries are provider aggregates, not independently verified sales.
Full set coverage
Every English set in the provider catalog is listed here. “Not imported” means a set is known to CardTrends but has not yet returned price products; it is not a Research Signal gap.
Model Valuation Thesis
CardTrends looks for grade-relative market dislocations.
The model compares current observed pricing against historical sales behavior, grade scarcity, certified population pressure, recent transaction activity, and the neighboring grade curve.
The practical thesis is simple: graded card markets often misprice the relationship between PSA 9 and PSA 10 copies. A PSA 9 can become attractive when the PSA 10 premium expands faster than the underlying demand, especially when PSA 9 liquidity remains healthy and population growth is not flooding supply.
CardTrends does not treat low price alone as value. It asks whether the price is low relative to its own history, its grade population, its higher-grade counterpart, and the depth of recent transactions.
The app separates those questions into three lenses: standalone grade value, grade-spread value, and a research signal that looks for agreement between the two.
Forward supply outlook is tracked separately as a test feature. It flags whether future sealed supply, reprint/restock risk, and PSA population pressure may become a tailwind or headwind, but it does not currently change standalone fair value.
The public dashboard shows directional reasoning and audit metrics. The exact alpha blend, thresholds, and calibration choices remain proprietary.
Metric Guide
- Current Price
- The market price being tested. This can come from an observed recent sale, a source price, or a normalized fixture input.
- Standalone Fair Value
- The model's estimate for the grade after considering same-grade sale history, population, scarcity, turnover, and population pressure.
- Standalone Signal
- The grade's own valuation classification: undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued without letting the adjacent grade premium drive the answer.
- Standalone Gap
- The percentage difference between current price and standalone fair value. Negative means price is below estimated fair value.
- Spread Signal
- The relationship between paired grades, currently focused on PSA 9 versus PSA 10. It asks whether one grade is cheap or rich relative to the other.
- Premium Mispricing
- The difference between the current grade premium and the model-implied fair grade premium. Positive spread gaps favor the lower grade in the PSA 9 vs PSA 10 view.
- Research Signal
- The user-facing synthesis of standalone value, spread value, confidence, and minimum activity. It is a collectible-market research label, not financial advice.
- Current PSA 10 Premium
- The current price difference between the selected card grade and PSA 10. For PSA 9 rows, this approximates the current PSA 9 to PSA 10 premium.
- PSA Pop
- The PSA-certified population at the selected grade. It represents certified supply, not true float.
- Pop Higher
- The number of PSA-certified copies graded above the selected grade. For PSA 9, this is usually the PSA 10 population.
- Gem Rate
- PSA 10 population divided by total PSA population. A low gem rate suggests a card is harder to grade into PSA 10.
- 365D Sales
- Observed completed sales in the trailing year from the available fixture/source data.
- Turnover
- Trailing sales divided by PSA population at grade. It is a rough liquidity and effective-float proxy.
- Z-Score
- A robust price-position measure comparing current price to historical same-grade sales. Negative means current price is low versus history.
- Percentile
- Where the current price sits in the observed historical sale distribution. Lower percentile generally means cheaper versus history.
- Data Quality
- The provenance tier for a row, such as synthetic seed, observed sample, or PSA CardFacts-backed data.
- Forward Supply Outlook
- A set-level forecast layer for whether reprint/restock risk and sealed supply are likely to be a tailwind, neutral factor, or headwind.
- Reprint Risk
- A 0-100 test score for future raw supply pressure over the stated forecast horizon. It is visible for research context and does not currently change fair value.
- History Score
- Component score for whether current price is attractive relative to historical same-grade sales.
- Turnover Score
- Component score for observed trading activity relative to certified population.
- Scarcity Score
- Component score for grade scarcity using population at and above the selected grade.
- Pop Growth Score
- Component score for certified-supply pressure. Faster population growth is generally a headwind.
- Condition Difficulty Score
- Component score derived from gem rate. Lower gem rates support fair value because future PSA 10 supply may be harder to create.
- Grade Curve Score
- Diagnostic score for adjacent-grade pricing. It informs spread analysis but should not dominate standalone fair value.