How we estimate a PSA 9 price
A ballpark for cards that have sold in PSA 10 but not in PSA 9. The numbers on this page are recalculated every time our prices update.
What the estimate is, and what it isn't
Some cards have recent PSA 10 sales but no PSA 9 sales, so their PSA 9 price is N/A. For those cards, the PSA 9 page shows a separate line: Estimated PSA 9 · about $X (likely $Y–$Z) · Strong estimate (or Moderate, or Weak). It is the card's PSA 10 price multiplied by the typical gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10 prices among similar cards.
It is a ballpark, not a price anyone paid. The PSA 9 price itself stays N/A until real PSA 9 sales appear. The estimate is never used in lists, Card Prices, Market Movers, watchlists, portfolios, alerts, or the Market Pulse.
Which cards get one
Cards whose PSA 9 price is N/A and whose PSA 10 price comes from real PSA 10 sales, even just one. Where the PSA 10 figure is itself PriceCharting's figure rather than our own sales, there is no estimate: that would be an estimate of an estimate. Today 1,461 card printings qualify: 1,333 Moderate and 128 Weak.
Strong, Moderate and Weak estimates
Every estimate is labeled by how accurate estimates built on the same evidence turned out to be in testing, not by judgment. Three things make an estimate weaker:
- Few PSA 10 sales. A PSA 10 price from one or two sales is less certain than the middle of three to five.
- No population count. Without at least five PSA 9s and five PSA 10s in the PSA census, the estimate can't account for how rare PSA 10s are.
- Few similar cards. When fewer than 30 cards from the same era and price level have both prices, the estimate leans on a wider group that fits the card less well.
To measure this, we take the cards whose PSA 9 price we know, rebuild each one's PSA 10 price from just its latest sale, its latest two, or all of them, with and without its population count, and estimate its PSA 9 without looking at it. An estimate is Strong when estimates built on the same evidence typically missed the real PSA 9 price by 26% or less, Weak when they typically missed by 40% or more, and Moderate in between. Here is how each strength did in testing:
| Strength | Cards today | Typical miss | Within 25% | Off by more than half | Real price inside the likely range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate | 1,333 | 35% | 38% | 35% | 50% |
| Weak | 128 | 59% | 24% | 56% | 50% |
Weaker estimates get a wider likely range, so at every strength the range holds about half of real prices.
What "similar cards" means
We learn the gap from the 6,636 card printings that have at least three real PSA 9 sales and three real PSA 10 sales. Across all of them, a PSA 9 typically sells for 22% of the PSA 10 price, but that moves a lot with the era and the price level. Each card is compared with cards from the same era at the same PSA 10 price level. When fewer than 30 such cards have both prices, we widen the comparison to the whole era, and then to every card.
By era. The typical PSA 9 price as a share of the PSA 10 price, among cards with both.
| Era | Years | Cards with both prices | Typical PSA 9 / PSA 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| WOTC | 1999–2003 | 1,797 | 19% |
| EX | 2003–2007 | 847 | 17% |
| Diamond & Pearl / HeartGold SoulSilver | 2007–2011 | 144 | 12% |
| Black & White | 2011–2013 | 88 | 11% |
| XY | 2014–2016 | 332 | 11% |
| Sun & Moon | 2017–2019 | 708 | 21% |
| Sword & Shield | 2020–2023 | 1,069 | 31% |
| Scarlet & Violet / Mega Evolution | 2023–2026 | 1,651 | 28% |
By PSA 10 price. The more a PSA 10 is worth, the bigger its premium over a PSA 9, so the PSA 9 is a smaller share of the PSA 10 price.
| PSA 10 price | Cards with both prices | Typical PSA 9 / PSA 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Under $100 | 1,883 | 34% |
| $100–$500 | 2,491 | 19% |
| $500–$2,500 | 1,280 | 15% |
| Over $2,500 | 982 | 13% |
Population
Where the PSA census shows at least five copies in both PSA 9 and PSA 10, the estimate also looks at how rare PSA 10s are next to PSA 9s. When PSA 10s are scarce compared with the card's PSA 9s, the gap between the two prices is usually wider, so the estimate moves lower. When PSA 10s are plentiful, it moves higher. 5,395 of the 6,636 cards we learn from have such a census.
The likely range
The range is where the middle half of similar cards' real PSA 9 prices landed when we tested the method on them, then widened or narrowed for the evidence each estimate rests on, so it holds about half of real prices at every strength. In testing, the range held the real PSA 9 price in 50% of Moderate and 50% of Weak estimates. So the real price can sit outside the range, about half of the time.
How accurate it is
We hide each card's real PSA 9 price, estimate it from its PSA 10 price using only the other cards, and compare. This runs in five rounds, so every card is tested once. This table uses each card's full PSA 10 price, from three to five sales; the strength table above covers estimates built on less.
| Cards | Tested | Typical miss | Within 25% | Off by more than half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cards tested | 6,636 | 30% | 43% | 27% |
| Cards with a population count | 5,395 | 30% | 42% | 27% |
| The same cards, ignoring population | 5,395 | 32% | 41% | 29% |
The typical estimate misses the real PSA 9 price by about 30%, and about 43% of cards land within 25% of it. About 27% are off by more than half. That is good enough for a clearly labeled ballpark, not good enough to be a price.
What the estimate can't see
It knows a card's era, its PSA 10 price and, where available, its population. It doesn't know about a card's own demand, eye appeal, or a recent spike in interest. When real PSA 9 sales arrive, they replace the N/A and the estimate disappears.